Major US banks are reporting third-quarter earnings this week, and investors will be looking past the headline numbers to a single question: can the AI-driven IPO pipeline hold up? Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are among the lenders on deck, following a first half that SpaceX helped carry. But the real test sits in the fourth quarter, when Anthropic is expected to go public in a deal that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading.
Anthropic's IPO Is the Quarter's Biggest Payday
Bloomberg reported in June that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley won lead roles for Anthropic's IPO, with JPMorgan also involved. The offering is expected in the fourth quarter, and it's the kind of deal that can reshape a bank's year. Morgan Stanley already showed what that looks like: its second-quarter equity underwriting revenue hit $851 million, up from $500 million a year earlier. The wealth unit pulled in a record $148 billion in net new assets, and CFO Sharon Yeshaya said more than half of that came from IPO-related flows. Those are the numbers that make a slow quarter look better.
Herman Chan, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, expects wealth management to stay strong as net new money keeps arriving. Investment banking and trading, he said, may be choppier. That's the split investors are weighing as they listen to earnings calls this week.
Why September's Fee Numbers Are a Mixed Signal
Global investment banking fees fell 19% from the second quarter, according to London Stock Exchange Group data. But they're still up 12% for the first nine months of the year. That combination — a weak quarter inside a solid year — tells you banks are leaning on a handful of large deals rather than a broad-based recovery. The Anthropic offering is one of those deals. If it slips, Goldman and Morgan Stanley feel it directly in fee income.
The broader market backdrop is more fragile than the record index highs suggest. Chan points to IPO delays and an AI-led rally as reasons for caution. Last Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 300 points after a report of lower OpenAI revenue. The discrepancy in revenue reporting traces to how OpenAI and Anthropic count cloud-partner sales, according to the Financial Times. That kind of accounting nuance doesn't usually move markets. Right now it does, because so much of the rally depends on AI spending staying on its current trajectory.
The Data Center Money Trail Runs Through Bank Balance Sheets
Banks don't just underwrite AI companies — they structure the bonds and securitizations that fund data center buildouts. That means slower AI spending doesn't only hurt IPO fees. It can ripple into debt issuance and structured finance. The recent cooling in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shares is tied to questions about AI spending and IPO timing. Investors are starting to price in the possibility that the pipeline isn't as deep as it looked six months ago.
For now, credit quality remains pristine. But investors will be watching for early signs of slippage, especially in commercial real estate and leveraged loans. Any crack there would compound the IPO concerns.
What to Listen for on the Calls
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the most at stake. They lead the Anthropic offering, so a delay — whether from regulatory pushback, market conditions, or something else — would dent fee income for both. JPMorgan's involvement gives it a smaller but still meaningful slice. Citigroup and Wells Fargo are more exposed to traditional lending and consumer credit, which makes their results a useful contrast.
The key numbers to watch: equity underwriting revenue, wealth management inflows, and any commentary on the IPO calendar for the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley's $148 billion in net new assets sets a high bar. If that pace slows, it won't just be about one quarter's earnings — it'll be a signal that the AI wealth effect is fading.
Anthropic's IPO is expected to price before year-end. Banks report over the next several days. The gap between those two events is where the market's next move lives.
