Biotech companies are stealing the spotlight in the 2026 US IPO market, leaving AI darlings like Anthropic in the dust. A new report from Crypto Briefing puts the probability of Anthropic going public by December 31 at just 63.5% — a far cry from the hype that surrounded the AI sector earlier this year.
Biotech's banner year
So far in 2026, biotech IPOs have raised more capital than any other sector. The trend has surprised many who expected AI firms to dominate the public markets. Instead, investors are piling into drug developers and medical device companies, drawn by clear revenue paths and regulatory catalysts.
The shift is stark. Just a few months ago, Anthropic was seen as a sure bet for a blockbuster IPO. Now it's playing catch-up to a wave of biotech listings that have already priced above their ranges.
Anthropic's uncertain path
According to Crypto Briefing, the prediction market currently gives Anthropic a 63.5% chance of completing its IPO by the end of 2026. That's not a slam dunk. The AI firm has been tight-lipped about its timeline, and the market's appetite for unprofitable tech companies has cooled.
Anthropic's delay isn't just about timing — it's about competition. Biotech firms are eating the IPO window, and that leaves less room for AI companies that need to convince investors of long-term potential without near-term profits.
Why biotech is winning
The facts don't give a single reason, but the pattern is clear. Biotech IPOs this year have been oversubscribed, with several doubling on their first day. Meanwhile, AI companies face scrutiny over valuation and revenue models. The market is voting with its dollars, and right now it's voting for molecules over models.
For Anthropic, the clock is ticking. A 63.5% probability means there's still a real chance it doesn't happen this year. If biotech keeps its momentum, the window could close further.
The next big test for Anthropic will be whether it files its S-1 before the end of the third quarter. If it doesn't, the odds will likely drop. For now, the IPO market belongs to biotech — and AI is waiting its turn.
