Kevin Warsh delivered his first press conference as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, June 17, sending gold and Bitcoin sharply lower after remarks that markets took as unfriendly to risk assets. The FOMC held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but Warsh’s refusal to offer any forward guidance and a median dot plot showing nine officials eyeing at least one hike in 2026 spooked traders.
Five new task forces
Warsh announced the creation of five internal task forces covering communications, balance sheet policy, data sources, productivity and jobs and AI, and inflation frameworks. The move signals a broad review of how the Fed operates, but provided no immediate clarity on policy direction. The FOMC also issued a shorter, simpler policy statement that dispensed with older language and forward guidance — a break from the verbose communiqués of the Powell era.
The end of forward guidance
In his most notable break from tradition, Warsh refused to give any forward guidance, stating it was ‘not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.’ He emphasized data-dependency and said the Fed should let markets react to economic data rather than signals from the central bank. It’s a sharp departure from the approach of recent chairs, who used forward guidance as a primary tool to shape expectations.
Hike talk from the dot plot
Although Warsh did not submit his own projections, the median dot plot still showed a slightly higher rate path, with nine of his colleagues seeing at least one rate hike in 2026. Inflation has run well above the 2% target for over five years, and Warsh described the 2% target as having ‘zero’ to the right of the decimal point currently — suggesting no tolerance for overshoot. He reiterated that the FOMC is ‘unambiguous and unanimous’ in its commitment to deliver price stability.
Risk assets react
Bitcoin and gold both crashed following the press conference as investors digested the hawkish undertone and the lack of any dovish signals. The timing isn’t great for crypto, which has been struggling to reclaim highs hit earlier this year. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28–29, and markets will be watching for any shift in tone from Warsh, who has signaled a clear break from the communication style of his predecessors.
