BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, expects Bitcoin to get a boost from growing US deficit fears as the midterm elections approach — even as the cryptocurrency trades roughly 49% below its all-time high and investors continue to pull money from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The price picture
Bitcoin is hovering around $64,360, down sharply from the record of $126,080 it hit back in October 2025. The slide has been steady: spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $6.4 billion since May 7, with only two days of positive inflows in that stretch. At the same time, stablecoin balances have dropped $8 billion since May 22, signaling a broader retreat from crypto exposure.
Why Mitchnick sees an upside
Mitchnick’s call hinges on the political cycle. With US midterm elections this November, he expects candidates to ramp up deficit spending proposals — historically a catalyst for Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty. His firm’s iShares Bitcoin Trust was the largest spot Bitcoin ETF during the earlier rally, giving the view extra weight inside the industry.
Dimon’s counterpoint
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, a longtime Bitcoin skeptic who once called it a fraud, offered a different macro picture this week. He highlighted AI spending on track for roughly $700 billion in 2026, unemployment at 4.3%, and the S&P 500 breaking above 7,600 for the first time in early June. The contrast between Dimon’s bullish take on equities and AI and Mitchnick’s bet on Bitcoin underscores the split among Wall Street heavyweights.
Seasonal headwinds ahead
NYDIG analyst Greg Cipolaro has pointed out that Bitcoin’s weakest months historically are August and September. With the election still months away, the next few weeks could test Mitchnick’s thesis before any deficit-driven rally materializes.
The immediate question is whether the ETF outflows and stablecoin drain slow down — or accelerate — as summer deepens and the political debate heats up.
