Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan have laid out the ETF themes they expect to lead in 2026, and the list is heavy on hardware, not hype. Artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and defense make up the core, according to research from both firms, which also points to a broader shift toward capital-intensive sectors.
A shift toward heavy investment
The identified themes are a departure from the growth-at-any-cost playbook that dominated much of the past decade. Instead, the emphasis is on industries that need big, physical assets — data centers, power grids, factories, and the hardware behind AI. The firms describe this as a shift toward capital-intensive areas, where the barrier to entry is high and the payoff often takes years.
That doesn't mean the themes are purely defensive. Defense, in this context, covers both military spending and cybersecurity, while infrastructure spans everything from broadband to energy storage. The AI piece is the broadest, touching everything from chips to software to the utilities that power them.
Resilience and sustainability as the guardrails
Both firms stress that these themes aren't just about picking winners. The emphasis on resilience suggests investors are looking for companies that can hold up through supply chain snags, rate swings, or a downturn. Sustainability is the other half of the equation — not just environmental, but also the ability of a business model to keep delivering over time.
In practice, that could mean ETFs that lean toward firms with strong balance sheets, reliable cash flow, and pricing power. The shift toward capital-intensive sectors also implies a longer investment horizon, since these projects take time to produce returns.
What that means for ETF investors
For someone picking funds, the 2026 lineup likely looks different than the tech-heavy favorites of the last few years. Expect to see more funds that bundle together construction and engineering plays, defense contractors, and AI chipmakers. The firms didn't offer specific products, but their research will almost certainly inform what gets launched in the coming months.
There's also a timing question. These themes are designed for the year ahead, but they're built on trends that have been building for a while. The question now is how much of this is already priced into the market, and whether the sustainability focus holds when returns get squeezed. That's the gap that will shape the ETF landscape going into 2026.
