The Bureau of Labor Statistics says fewer employers are responding to its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a closely watched measure of the U.S. labor market. The agency's latest report shows participation in the monthly survey has dropped, though it doesn't say why.
What JOLTS Tracks
The JOLTS survey counts job openings, hires, and separations, including quits and layoffs. Economists and policymakers use the numbers to gauge how tight the labor market is and whether workers are confident enough to change jobs. A decline in responses could make those readings less reliable.
The Reported Decline
The bureau's report notes that participation has fallen, but it offers no explanation for the drop. That leaves businesses, analysts, and anyone who follows labor data guessing about whether the trend will continue. The survey is voluntary, so employers can simply stop responding without consequence.
Lower participation means the survey's sample gets smaller, which can introduce more error into the estimates. If the missing respondents aren't similar to the ones who still answer, the data could skew. That could mislead anyone who relies on JOLTS to make decisions about hiring, investment, or policy.
The survey is one of the few sources that captures both the demand for workers and the churn in the workforce. Even a small dip in response rates can raise questions about the accuracy of the headline numbers, like the monthly job openings figure that investors and the Federal Reserve watch.
The bureau hasn't said how it plans to address the declining participation, or whether it will adjust its methodology to account for the change. The next JOLTS release will come on the regular schedule, but it's unclear if the data will carry a larger margin of error than usual.
For now, anyone reading the numbers will have to take them with a bit more caution.
