Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, is betting that the Brazilian Real is about to stage a massive breakout. His call comes as the currency has been on a steady climb since the start of 2025, and he points to two main forces behind the move: the winding down of the Middle East conflict and an uptick in global uncertainty that is pushing money toward select emerging markets.
A Currency Already on the Rise
The Real has been gaining ground for months. That upward trend began early last year and has held through a period of volatile global markets. Brooks now argues that the rally has room to run — and that the pace could accelerate. He described the expected move as a “massive breakout,” suggesting the currency could strengthen sharply beyond recent levels. The prediction stands out because it comes from an economist who spent years in the thick of currency trading at one of Wall Street’s biggest banks.
Two Catalysts Behind the Surge
Brooks identifies the end of the Middle East conflict as a key driver. With hostilities winding down, he argues that global risk appetite is shifting. That shift benefits currencies like the Real that had been under pressure during the conflict. The second catalyst is less precise but equally powerful: rising uncertainty in parts of the world he does not name explicitly. When investors grow jittery about other regions, they often rotate into relatively stable, high-yielding markets. Brazil, with its large economy and comparatively high interest rates, fits that bill. Brooks sees that rotation accelerating.
A Forecaster With Credibility
Brooks is not a casual commentator. At Goldman Sachs he ran the firm’s foreign-exchange strategy team, and now at Brookings he focuses on global economic policy. His track record gives weight to his currency calls. He has been vocal about the Real before, but this is his most bullish statement yet. He offers no timeline for the breakout, and he does not provide a specific target rate. Instead he frames it as a directional bet: the Real will continue to strengthen, possibly in a sharp move that catches the market off guard.
What Comes Next
The Real’s path depends on whether the catalysts Brooks cites actually materialize. The Middle East conflict may be ending, but peace is fragile. And rising uncertainty in other regions is a broad notion — it could mean anything from political turmoil to a slowdown in China. Traders will be watching for concrete signs that capital is flowing into Brazil. Brooks’ prediction puts the Real on the radar, but the breakout still needs to happen. For now, the currency keeps climbing, and the market waits to see if the former Goldman strategist is right.
