Canadian stocks rose 1.2% on Tuesday. Gold prices climbed. US tariff threats hung over the market, but they didn't stop the rally.
Gold's rally and the tariff backdrop
The Canadian market gained ground as gold extended its upward move. The US has threatened new tariffs on Canadian goods, a move that typically weighs on equities. But gold's strength provided a counterweight, lifting mining and materials shares. The metal's rise comes amid persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
Prediction market sees slim chance of $4,600 gold
Prediction markets now give a 1.1% probability that gold will reach $4,600 by July 2026. That's a long-shot bet, but it shows some traders are positioning for a major rally. For context, gold would need to roughly double from current levels to hit that target. The odds are low, but the bet itself reflects a view that inflation or global turmoil could push prices much higher.
Canadian stocks rose 1.2% despite the tariff threats. The gain was broad-based, with energy and financials also contributing. Investors are watching for the next move from Washington on trade. The US has not set a specific deadline for the tariff decision, leaving markets in a wait-and-see mode.
Gold's climb has been steady. The prediction market bet on $4,600 by mid-2026 is a tiny wager, but it's a wager nonetheless. Whether gold can sustain its rally or tariffs eventually drag stocks down is the open question.
