Citigroup’s chief US economist is holding firm on a forecast for rate cuts this year, pushing back against the narrative that recent strong jobs data will force the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish. The stance, if it plays out, could provide a tailwind for digital currencies and other risk-sensitive assets. The analysis was first reported by Crypto Briefing this week.
Why Citi isn’t blinking
Despite a string of solid employment reports, Citi’s lead US economist argues the broader economic picture still supports lower rates. The central bank’s own projections, the economist contends, leave room for cuts once inflation trends settle further. It’s a contrarian view — most of Wall Street has pushed back rate-cut timelines into late 2026 or 2027.
Crypto’s rate-cut bet
For digital currency markets, lower borrowing costs have historically meant easier money flowing into riskier bets. Bitcoin and ether both rallied in past easing cycles, and traders have been watching Fed signals closely. Citi’s dovish baseline, if validated, could give crypto bulls a macro rationale to lean into positions.
A divided Street
The divergence among major banks is striking. Several rivals have publicly warned that persistent inflation and a tight labor market will keep the Fed on hold. Citi’s willingness to break with the consensus keeps a live debate going — and it means the next jobs or CPI print will carry extra weight. Neither side can claim certainty yet.
