Rep. Bryan Steil has introduced a bill that would prohibit members of Congress from placing bets on policy outcomes in prediction markets. The measure has already stirred debate over whether the White House should be exempt from the ban.
What the bill would do
The legislation targets prediction markets — platforms where users wager on events like election results, legislative votes, or regulatory decisions. Under the proposed rule, any member of Congress would be barred from betting on policy-related contracts. That includes bets on whether a specific bill passes, a regulation changes, or a government action occurs.
Steil, a Republican from Wisconsin, argued the ban is needed to prevent conflicts of interest. Lawmakers have access to non-public information and could influence the outcomes they bet on, raising ethical concerns. The bill does not address trading in stocks or other financial instruments, only prediction market contracts tied to policy.
The White House exemption debate
While the bill explicitly covers Congress, it leaves open the question of whether the executive branch should be included. Some critics say the White House and federal agencies should also be subject to the restriction, since administration officials often have even more direct control over policy decisions. Proponents of an exemption argue that the president and staff already face strict ethics rules, and that prediction markets can provide useful real-time data on policy impacts.
The debate has split observers. Those pushing for a broader ban point out that a White House official could theoretically bet on a regulation they are drafting. Others worry that excluding the executive branch would create a loophole that undermines the bill's purpose.
Prediction markets under scrutiny
Prediction markets have grown in popularity, with platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi allowing users to trade contracts on everything from Supreme Court rulings to Federal Reserve rate decisions. Regulators have taken notice. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has cracked down on some event contracts, but the legal landscape remains murky.
Steil's bill adds a new layer: personal conduct rules for the people who make policy. If enacted, it would force lawmakers to choose between participating in a growing market or staying out to avoid even the appearance of impropriety.
The measure is in early stages. It will need committee hearings and a vote in the House before any real movement. The question of the White House exemption is expected to be a key sticking point as the bill advances.
