Europe's gas storage is at its weakest buffer in 15 years, and the continent may not hit the critical 80% fill target before winter. That warning came from Equinor's CEO, who said current levels sit at 54% — the second-lowest for this time of year in a decade and a half.
The Warning from Equinor's CEO
Anders Opedal, chief executive of the Norwegian state-owned energy giant, told reporters that Europe's gas supply cushion is thinner than it has been since 2010. He pointed to storage data showing the region is far behind the typical pace needed to secure enough fuel for the heating season. "We are looking at the weakest buffer in 15 years," Opedal said, according to a transcript of his remarks. The CEO did not provide a specific forecast for storage levels by November but stressed that the current trajectory is worrying.
Why Storage Levels Matter
Gas storage acts as a shock absorber during cold snaps or supply disruptions. When inventories are low, prices become more volatile and the risk of shortages rises. Europe learned that lesson the hard way in 2022, when Russia cut pipeline flows and storage levels plunged. Since then, the European Union has mandated that member states fill storage to 80% of capacity by November 1 each year. Missing that target doesn't trigger automatic penalties, but it leaves the bloc exposed to price spikes and potential rationing.
The 54% figure is the aggregate for the EU as of early April, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. That's roughly 10 percentage points below the average for the same week over the past five years. Only in 2022, when the energy crisis was at its peak, were levels lower at this point.
The Risk of Missing the 80% Target
Reaching 80% by November requires a sustained ramp-up in imports, mostly of liquefied natural gas (LNG). But global LNG markets are tight, with Asia competing for cargoes. European benchmark gas prices have already fallen from crisis highs, but they remain above pre-2021 levels, making it expensive to refill storage quickly. Opedal noted that the pace of injection so far this spring is slower than needed. If it doesn't accelerate, the EU could fall short of its goal.
That would be a political problem as well as an economic one. Governments across Europe have spent billions on subsidies and price caps to shield households and industry from high energy costs. A storage shortfall could reignite those costs and test public tolerance for continued support.
The European Commission is expected to release its next storage update in May, which will show whether the pace of injections has picked up. In the meantime, countries are negotiating new long-term supply deals with producers like Equinor, QatarEnergy, and U.S. LNG exporters. Norway has already become Europe's largest gas supplier after Russia's pipeline deliveries collapsed.
But Opedal's warning suggests that even with robust Norwegian output, the buffer is thin. The question now is whether Europe can accelerate storage injections fast enough to avoid a repeat of the 2022 crisis — or whether the continent will enter next winter with its smallest safety margin in 15 years.
