Norwegian energy giant Equinor has warned that Europe’s natural gas reserves could be pushed to critical levels if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for one to three months. The assessment, released Thursday, lays out a scenario where a prolonged disruption to the key maritime chokepoint would trigger a cascade of problems for European energy markets.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for Europe’s gas
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. A shutdown would block tankers carrying LNG from Qatar and other Gulf producers to European terminals. Equinor’s analysis focuses on the impact of a closure lasting between one and three months—a timeframe that, in the company’s view, would be enough to deplete Europe’s already strained storage levels.
What a shutdown would mean for prices and demand
According to Equinor, a prolonged closure would drive natural gas prices higher across Europe. The resulting price surge would likely destroy demand as industrial users and power plants cut back consumption. The company also warned of increased market volatility, with sudden price swings becoming more frequent as traders react to each new piece of news about the blockade.
Critical shortages if the closure drags on
Equinor specifically cautioned that Europe’s gas stocks could face “critical shortages” if the Strait remains shut for the upper end of the projected range. European storage inventories, which were already drawn down after last winter, have been rebuilding but remain vulnerable to any disruption in supply. The warning comes as the continent works to reduce its dependence on Russian pipeline gas, making LNG from the Gulf even more important.
The company’s assessment did not specify what actions Europe could take to mitigate such a crisis. But the message is clear: a regional conflict or geopolitical incident that closes the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and severe consequences for European energy security.
Equinor’s warning adds to a growing list of risks facing Europe’s gas market. Policymakers in Brussels and national capitals have been scrambling to secure alternative supplies and boost storage capacity. Whether those efforts would be enough to survive a multi-week shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz remains an open question.
