Galaxy has launched an over-the-counter prediction markets desk targeted at institutional investors. The new desk lets large clients trade event-driven outcomes — such as election results, regulatory decisions, or macroeconomic policy changes — and blend those positions with broader hedging strategies.
From Public Markets to Bilateral Deals
Most prediction markets today run on decentralized platforms or public order books, limiting the size and privacy that institutional money requires. Galaxy’s desk operates off-exchange, negotiating trades bilaterally. That structure allows clients to place larger bets without moving the market and to keep positions off-chain.
The move signals that the firm sees institutional demand for event-based risk transfer — a space that has grown rapidly over the past two years but remains fragmented across retail-friendly exchanges and startup platforms.
Blending Event Bets with Hedging
Galaxy says the desk is designed to integrate event-driven strategies directly into institutional risk management. Rather than treating prediction trades as standalone speculation, the desk helps clients use them as hedges or as components of broader portfolio protection.
For example, a fund concerned about a pending antitrust ruling might combine a short position on the affected stock with a prediction contract that pays out if the ruling goes against the company. The two legs offset each other. Galaxy’s desk handles the execution and structuring of both sides.
The firm did not disclose which specific contracts or events it plans to support first. Executives noted that the desk will start with high-liquidity, data-driven events — economic indicators, central bank decisions, and major elections — before expanding into niche categories.
A Growing Institutional Tool
Prediction markets have drawn increasing attention from traditional finance. Hedge funds and asset managers have used them to gauge sentiment on everything from Federal Reserve rate moves to geopolitical flashpoints. But the lack of a tailored, regulated OTC venue has kept many firms on the sidelines.
Galaxy’s desk aims to fill that gap by offering customized terms, larger contract sizes, and counterparty risk management via the firm’s existing prime brokerage and trading infrastructure. Clients can also net prediction-market exposure against their other positions across Galaxy’s platform.
The desk is live now for qualified institutional clients. No maximum position sizes or minimum trade thresholds were specified.
