Gold surged nearly 2% on Wednesday, breaking through a descending trendline that had kept a lid on every rally since February's all-time high of $5,598. The move pushed spot prices to $4,155 and lifted tokenized gold Pax Gold (PAXG) 2.6% higher to $4,145 over the past 24 hours. Popular trader Ash Crypto estimated the combined surge added nearly $1 trillion to gold and silver valuations in eight hours.
Technical breakout after a year of compression
Barchart flagged extreme volatility compression on the daily chart of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) on Monday, with Bollinger Band Width falling to 15.43 — its lowest since August 2025. That earlier squeeze resolved into a five-month advance that ended at February's record high. This time, the coil formed inside a giant triangle, with correction resistance above and a three-year bull trendline below. Gold pushed through the trendline from the $5,598 peak and reached the upper Bollinger Band after a year of contraction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 55 and points higher, leaving room before overbought territory.
Fed rate hike odds and the NFP wildcard
Markets see a 63.6% chance of a September Fed rate hike, and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could decide whether the move extends. Deutsche Bank expects 65,000 new jobs; a hotter print would lift rate hike odds and yields. The 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% already limits gold's appeal. JPMorgan cut its Q4 gold target to $4,500 in July, but the current breakout suggests bulls aren't waiting for year-end.
Key levels to watch
Nearest resistance sits between $4,300 and $4,400, containing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $4,333 — about 4.3% above current price. The 52-week moving average near $4,312 strengthens that barrier. Support remains the $3,900 to $4,000 demand zone, which holds the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $3,942. Buyers defended that area twice, forming a double bottom. A daily close below $3,900 would invalidate the bullish structure and revive the July sell-off scenario. If bulls turn $4,166 (July 22 high) into support, the road to $4,333 remains open ahead of the jobs report. A rejection at the broken trendline would push gold back inside the coil it just escaped.
