Gold futures saw a wave of buying in the latest Commitments of Traders report, while silver lagged behind — and a sudden oil price crash after a US-Iran peace deal is reshaping the metals landscape. The COT data for the week ending June 9 shows non-commercial gold longs increased by 1,888 contracts, commercial longs jumped 5,135, and total open interest climbed 6,657. Silver, by contrast, saw non-commercial longs fall 1,446 contracts, with open interest rising just 631 — a tenth of gold's move.
Why the oil crash matters for gold
On June 14, oil tumbled to a two-month low of $80 a barrel after the United States and Iran reached a peace deal. That's a key shift because over the past 30 days, gold and crude have a negative correlation of -0.34 — meaning gold tends to rally when oil falls. Silver's correlation with oil is weaker, at -0.15. The inverse relationship gives gold a tailwind as energy prices slide, especially with the peace deal removing a major geopolitical risk premium from oil markets.
Silver's mixed signals
Silver's COT data tells a quieter story. Non-commercial longs dropped by 1,446 contracts, and total open interest edged up just 631. That's a fraction of gold's 6,657-contract rise. Still, the gold-to-silver ratio sits near 61.7, up from recent lows, suggesting silver may be undervalued relative to gold. But for now, traders aren't piling in — silver's futures positioning is flat.
Options activity: Gold hedges, silver calls
Options data adds another layer. On the gold ETF, the put-call volume ratio rose from 0.73 to 0.78 since June 2, and the open-interest ratio edged up from 0.56 to 0.58. That looks bearish at first glance, but analysts view the rise in puts as hedging on a winning trade — not a bet against gold. The heavy futures buying backs that up. On silver's SLV ETF, the put-call volume ratio actually fell from 0.44 to 0.40, and the open-interest ratio held near 0.53. That mild tilt toward calls sits on top of flat futures positioning, indicating light speculative interest rather than a conviction move.
What investors are watching now
With oil at $80 and the US-Iran deal fresh, the next COT report will show whether gold's buying streak extends or fades. Silver's next move likely depends on whether gold can hold its gains — the two metals have a 0.82 correlation over the past 30 days. If gold keeps rising, silver might catch up. For now, the data points to cautious hedging in gold and a wait-and-see stance in silver.
