Gold is holding above $4,600 an ounce, rising as much as 0.7% on Thursday as traders shake off Wednesday's pullback. The metal recovered part of that dip, snapping a five-day winning streak, but the broader rally is intact — prices are up roughly 14% this month, the best monthly gain since 1999.
The Debasement Trade Drives Demand
The rebound is anchored in the so-called debasement trade — buying hard assets to hedge against expanding deficits and a weaker dollar. That trade powered gold's record-breaking rally in 2025 and has come back into focus after the U.S. Treasury's unexpected bond market intervention last week, which spiked prices and revived interest in the strategy.
Gold's bounce pushed it back above its 200-day moving average, a technical signal that momentum is shifting. The metal is still below last month's highs, but the move confirms that the pullback was just a blip for now.
ETF Inflows Turn Positive Again
Bullion-backed ETFs added more than 28 tonnes last week — the most since January. That's a sharp reversal after a two-month outflow streak during the summer. The inflows suggest that institutional money is coming back into the sector, not just retail speculation.
The question now is whether that demand can survive a hawkish signal from the Fed.
Warsh's First Big Stage
All eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who will deliver his first major speech as Fed chairman on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. It's the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering of central bankers, a venue known for major policy pivots — most recently the Fed's hawkish shift in 2022.
Warsh's address gives him a chance to counter criticism that he's been guarded about his economic views. An inflation report that came in above the Fed's target has already raised rate-hike odds, lifting the dollar and bond yields. That's put gold in a tight spot.
If Warsh sounds hawkish, real yields and the dollar could climb further, pressuring gold's price outlook. If he leans dovish, the rally could extend toward fresh multi-month highs. For now, the metal is above $4,600, but the next move likely depends on what he says at 10 a.m. Friday.
