Gold is trading around $4,548 per ounce — 16% off its January record — but several major banks see a sharp rally ahead. JPMorgan predicts the metal will hit $6,300 by the end of next year. Deutsche Bank targets $6,000, UBS $5,900, and Goldman Sachs $5,400. The forecasts come as trading in gold on the Moscow Exchange more than tripled in March from a year earlier.
What the banks are saying
JPMorgan's $6,300 call is the most bullish among the big names. Deutsche Bank is close behind at $6,000. Both cite ongoing inflation and delayed Fed rate cuts as drivers. UBS sees $5,900, while Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $5,400. Russia's BCS World of Investments pegs gold at $5,385 over the next 12 months.
April US inflation hit 3.8%, the highest in a year. That's pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which tends to support gold as a hedge.
Russians pile into gold
On the Moscow Exchange, gold trading volume hit 42.6 tonnes in March — more than 3.5 times the figure from a year earlier. In ruble terms, the monetary volume jumped fivefold to 534.4 billion rubles ($7.1 billion).
Russians have five main ways to buy gold: unallocated metal accounts, brokerage instruments like GLDRUB_TOM, exchange-traded gold funds, gold-mining stocks, and digital financial assets. Oleg Reshetnikov of BCS World of Investments says spot instruments such as 'Gold for Rubles' and 'Silver for Rubles' are the most convenient for retail investors. Alexander Ryabinin of SF Education notes that Tinkoff Gold can be bought for as little as 13 rubles in the broker's app. Rais Ismagilov of AVI Capital advises spreading gold exposure across digital, exchange, and physical forms.
Why the rally might stall
Not everything is lining up for gold. India raised its gold import tariff to 15%, which has cooled physical demand in the world's second-biggest consumer. Meanwhile, Russia's central bank has been a net seller of gold this year, offloading 22 tonnes to plug budget gaps.
The combination of lower Indian demand and Russian central bank sales could keep a lid on prices in the short term. But the big bank forecasts suggest the longer-term bet is still higher.
What comes next
Gold is now about $1,750 below JPMorgan's end-2027 target. Whether the metal can regain its January record and push past $6,000 depends on inflation staying hot, the Fed staying on hold, and whether Indian import tariffs ease. The Moscow Exchange data shows Russian investors are already voting with their rubles.
