Goldman Sachs is betting on the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, arguing that the artificial intelligence investment boom will give these currencies an edge over their energy-importing neighbors. The bank ranks the three AI-linked currencies above the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah, which it sees as more vulnerable to an energy supply shock. Two forces, Goldman says, are shaping Asian macro markets right now: an energy supply shock and a surge in AI capital spending.
Why AI-Linked Currencies Are Favored
South Korea's current account surplus is forecast to nearly double this year, hitting roughly $300 billion — or 13.9% of GDP. That surplus, driven by semiconductor exports tied to AI demand, underpins Goldman's bullish view on the won. For Taiwan, the bank expects the dollar to outperform thanks to surging semiconductor exports and a trade surplus projected at 25% of GDP. The Malaysian ringgit gets a similar nod, with Goldman citing resilient AI-led growth, strong exports, and sustained foreign direct investment.
The Underperformers: Energy Importers
Goldman sees weaker prospects for the Thai baht, pointing to falling gold prices and lower real interest rates. Indonesia faces governance and policy questions despite efforts to attract foreign capital, the bank notes. The Philippine peso remains sensitive to high oil prices, while the Indian rupee — though not explicitly ranked — is expected to be supported by Reserve Bank of India measures and softer oil prices. Goldman is neutral on the Singapore dollar after the Monetary Authority of Singapore left policy unchanged.
2026 Performance Reality
Despite the bullish outlook, all three AI-linked currencies have lost ground against the US dollar so far in 2026. The Singapore dollar is down 0.28%, the ringgit 0.67%, the won 1.64%, and the Taiwan dollar 3.05%. But the energy importers have fared worse: the Philippine peso dropped 4.48%, the Thai baht 5.97%, the Indian rupee 6.01%, and the Indonesian rupiah 7.30%. The only Asian currency to appreciate against the dollar this year is the Chinese yuan, which has gained 3.32%.
Goldman maintains a 12-month USD/CNY forecast of 6.50, citing undervaluation and Beijing's push to internationalize the yuan. For the Indian rupee, the bank expects support from RBI measures and softer oil prices. The question now is whether the AI-driven demand can reverse the 2026 losses for the won, Taiwan dollar, and ringgit — or whether the energy supply shock will continue to weigh on the region.
