The country's two biggest grid operators are staring down a queue of connection requests that adds up to more than all the power plants currently running in the United States. PJM Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas — PJM and ERCOT — now carry a combined backlog of proposed generation and storage projects that outstrips the nation's entire installed capacity. The volume is so big that grid managers warn it threatens to push electricity costs higher and undermine reliability.
The scale of the queue
PJM covers 13 states plus the District of Columbia. ERCOT manages about 90 percent of Texas's power load. Together, the two grids field connection requests for new solar farms, wind turbines, battery storage and natural-gas plants that, if all built, would dwarf the roughly 1,200 gigawatts of capacity now operating across the contiguous U.S. The numbers come from interconnection studies filed at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and from internal ERCOT reports.
Developers are rushing to secure grid access ahead of expected demand growth from data centers, electric-vehicle charging and manufacturing. But the flood of applications has created a bottleneck. Project review times have stretched to three years or more in some PJM territories. ERCOT, which operates its own planning process, faces similar delays.
Why costs and reliability are at risk
When too many applicants pile into the queue, the grid operators must spend heavily on system studies and network upgrades they may never recover if projects drop out — and many do. Those costs get spread across all ratepayers. PJM estimates that interconnection-related upgrades in its 2024 cycle could add $2 to $4 per megawatt-hour to wholesale power prices across its footprint.
Reliability also takes a hit. A clogged queue means new generation can't come online fast enough to replace retiring coal and older gas plants. ERCOT's reserve margins have already shrunk to razor-thin levels during summer peaks. PJM has warned that retirements could outpace new capacity additions as early as 2028 unless the interconnection process speeds up.
Call for flexible regulation
Grid operators and some developers argue that the current rules, designed for an era of slow, predictable growth, can't handle today's volume. They're pressing for flexible regulations that allow conditional interconnection — letting projects start delivering power before all final studies are done — and for regional transmission planning that anticipates clusters of new generation rather than reacting to each request one at a time.
PJM has already proposed a "first-ready, first-served" reform that prioritizes projects with solid financing and site control. ERCOT is studying a similar approach. But both face pushback from some market participants who worry that faster approvals could shift risk to existing customers if projects later fail.
What's unresolved
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has not yet ruled on PJM's reform package. ERCOT, which is not FERC-jurisdictional, must get changes through the Texas Legislature or the state's Public Utility Commission. The next legislative session in Austin begins in January 2025. Until then, the queue keeps growing, and the clock on reliability keeps ticking.
