Three companies at the center of the data center cooling boom are sending conflicting market signals as a European heatwave and rising AI workloads drive demand, but institutional and retail money tell different stories. Carrier Global (CARR) is up 31% year-to-date but has slipped about 6% over the past month, while its Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has climbed steadily since July 14 — a sign that big investors are still buying the dip. Meanwhile, IMI plc (LON: IMI) has gained 19.21% year-to-date but only 1.44% in the past month, with its CMF near zero after peaking in January, and Vertiv Holdings (VRT) has dropped nearly 24% since June 22, though its CMF just turned positive for the first time since June.
Carrier's institutional buying masks a price slide
Carrier, which acquired smart-building firm 75F on July 23 to integrate AI-driven automation into data center cooling, reports earnings before Tuesday's open. Analysts expect consensus EPS of $0.83, down 9.8% year-over-year. Despite the price drop, the rising CMF suggests institutions are accumulating shares. Analysts rate Carrier a moderate buy with an average target of $77.40, implying about 12% upside from Friday's close of $69.33.
IMI's retail surge on heatwave headlines
IMI's Money Flow Index (MFI) surged to 88.92, near overbought territory, indicating retail investors are piling in on news of Britain's fourth heatwave — with 35°C forecast — and Brent crude above $100 per barrel, which makes gas heating more expensive and heat pumps more attractive. European heat pump sales grew 11% across 16 countries in 2025, though they fell in France, the largest market. Institutions hold about 92.7% of IMI shares, leaving only 5.93% for the general public, so retail buying can have outsized effects on the MFI. Three analysts rate IMI a moderate buy with an average target of 3,176 pence, implying about 7% upside from the current 2,972 pence.
Vertiv's Americas boom vs. Europe bust
Vertiv's Americas business grew 44% to $1.81 billion, now close to 70% of group sales, but its European, Middle East, and Africa sales fell 29% organically last quarter due to weak mid-2025 orders. The company's CMF has turned positive for the first time since June, suggesting institutional buying is starting to return, but its MFI is still sliding at 34.72, indicating retail selling continues. Extreme heat has displaced more than 300,000 people in southern Europe, and data center cooling demand is growing due to AI workloads and hotter summers — but Vertiv's order book in the region hasn't caught up yet.
All three companies face a common tailwind: rising temperatures and AI-driven data center expansion. But the market is pricing them differently. Carrier's earnings Tuesday will be the first major test — if the company beats the lowered EPS consensus, the institutional buying could accelerate. IMI's retail-driven rally may cool if heatwave headlines fade. Vertiv needs to show that its Europe orders are recovering before the CMF uptick translates into a price rebound. For now, the divergence between institutional and retail signals leaves the sector's near-term direction uncertain.
