Houthi militants struck Saudi oil tankers this week, sending crude prices to their highest level in six weeks. The attack, which targeted vessels in the Red Sea, has reignited fears of supply disruptions in a market already tight from OPEC+ cuts.
What happened
The Houthi group, which controls parts of Yemen, claimed responsibility for the strikes. Saudi Arabia has not yet confirmed the extent of the damage, but the incident marks the most direct assault on the kingdom's oil infrastructure in months. The tankers were carrying crude through a key chokepoint when they came under fire.
Market reaction
Brent crude jumped more than 3% in early trading, hitting levels not seen since early April. The rally pushed prices above $85 a barrel, with traders scrambling to price in a potential disruption to Saudi exports. The kingdom is the world's second-largest oil producer and any sustained outage could tighten global supplies further.
Prediction market odds
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, bettors now see a 16.5% chance that crude oil will hit a new all-time high by December 31. That's up from single-digit odds before the attack. The contract asks whether the front-month Brent futures contract will ever trade above the previous record of $147.50 a barrel, set in July 2008.
The odds remain long, but the jump reflects how quickly sentiment can shift when a major producer's infrastructure comes under direct threat. Traders are watching for any further escalation, including potential retaliation by Saudi-led coalition forces against Houthi positions.
For now, the market is pricing in a risk premium that could evaporate if the situation de-escalates. But if the Houthis follow through on threats to target more tankers, or if the attacks spread to other Gulf states, the 16.5% probability could look conservative.
