Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, warned this week that the ongoing conflict in Iran could keep energy prices elevated for longer than markets expect. Speaking with Paul Allen on the sidelines of the Australian Energy Producers Conference in Adelaide, Kavonic's outlook was broadcast on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade. For crypto traders already sitting on Extreme Fear — the Fear & Greed index is at 25 — the timing couldn't be worse.
Why the Iran conflict hits different this time
Kavonic didn't mention Bitcoin. He didn't have to. His core message — that oil supply risks from Iran are real and could sustain price spikes — feeds directly into the macro headwind crypto has been fighting all month. Higher energy prices mean stickier inflation, a stronger dollar, and central banks reluctant to cut rates. That's a recipe for risk-off, and crypto is still treated as a risk asset by most institutional money.
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But there's a twist. Bitcoin's hash rate is electricity, and a lot of that electricity comes from natural gas. The Iran conflict is also pushing up Asian LNG prices — the JKM benchmark — faster than crude. That's a more direct cost squeeze for miners in Australia and other power-importing regions than a Brent spike alone. Less efficient miners could get forced offline, dropping hash rate and triggering difficulty adjustments. Most headlines miss that chain reaction.
Extreme fear and the decoupling question
The Fear & Greed index at 25 is the kind of number that historically has marked bottoms — but not always. In 2020 and 2022, crypto initially sold off on geopolitical energy shocks, then rallied weeks later as investors treated it as a non-sovereign hedge against fiat debasement. This time, institutions are more embedded. If Bitcoin holds or rises while oil spikes in the next 48 hours, it would signal a structural decoupling from risk assets — a contrarian buy signal in extreme fear.
If it doesn't hold, the downside could be sharp. BTC testing support near $60,000 and ETH falling toward $3,200 are the likely near-term paths if risk-off dominates. A diplomatic breakthrough could flip that fast, but no ceasefire is on the table yet.
Watch the Asia session first
Kavonic's interview aired on a show that targets Asian trading hours. That matters because crypto liquidity is thinner then, and volatility tends to spike. Asian institutional investors in Singapore and Hong Kong may react more aggressively to energy price fears than their US or European counterparts. A 2-3% drop in BTC during the Asia session could set the tone for the entire day, especially with leverage already stretched.
The big unresolved question: does Bitcoin act like digital gold this time, or does it just follow stocks lower? The next 48 hours will give a strong signal either way.
