Jordi Visser, a veteran macro investor, is calling time on the easy money in artificial intelligence. He says Bitcoin is the next big opportunity, and that AI programs will soon autonomously move money on blockchains — favoring Ethereum because investors prefer fee-generating networks. His warning comes as the biggest names in tech show signs of strain from their AI spending sprees.
The AI spending reality check
Google's free cash flow turned negative in Q2 2025 for the first time since its 2004 listing. Microsoft's free cash flow fell 23% year-over-year to $19.6 billion. Meta's dropped from $8.5 billion to just $784 million, despite a 28% revenue increase. Meta borrowed $24.91 billion to keep funding AI infrastructure, with total capital expenditure hitting $31.08 billion in the quarter.
Visser expects AI returns to shrink from 7-8x to around 30% annually, thanks to competition from cheap open-source models. The era of massive, easy returns is over, he argues.
Macro headwinds pile up
The broader market isn't helping. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a 3-9 vote, and the Dow fell 1,153 points — its worst day since April 2025. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Goldman Sachs warned that US stocks have limited upside because hedge funds are already heavily leveraged, with borrowing near 5-year highs. Computer-driven funds hold about $196 billion in US stocks; a further decline could force $15.7 billion in forced selling within a week. Retail trading activity in July 2025 is 3% below the 5-year average.
Morgan Stanley economist Mike Gapen expects US inflation to ease to around 3.3% by December, keeping the Fed on hold — though three Fed officials already voted for a rate hike. Goldman Sachs expects 90% of large US companies to be free to buy back shares by mid-August 2025, which could provide some support.
Crypto's mixed signals
Despite the macro gloom, crypto has been rallying. Ethereum is up 23.3% in the last 30 days to about $1,921, while Bitcoin is up 10.9% to about $64,793. Over the past year, though, Bitcoin is down 45% and Ethereum is down 49%. Ethereum is 61% below its 2025 peak, Bitcoin 49% below its all-time high.
Visser predicts that AI programs will autonomously move money on blockchains, and that Ethereum will benefit more than Bitcoin because investors prefer networks that generate fees. That's a bet on the utility of the network, not just store of value.
The regulatory picture remains uncertain. The CLARITY Act, which would determine US crypto regulatory jurisdiction, has about 30% odds of passing according to Polymarket, with seven Senate roadblocks. That's a long shot, but the conversation is moving.
For now, Visser's call is a contrarian one: AI spending is peaking, and the next wave of returns may come from crypto — especially if autonomous AI agents start moving value on-chain. The question is whether the macro headwinds will let that thesis play out.
