Lumber futures have fallen for ten consecutive trading sessions, the longest losing streak since December 2024. The commodity now trades near $586 per thousand board feet after failing to break through the $650 resistance zone in late July. The slide comes as the US housing market faces a combination of weak builder confidence, falling home prices, and soaring costs tied to Canadian lumber tariffs.
Builder confidence stuck in the basement
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 34 in July, marking the 15th straight month below 50 — the longest stretch of pessimism since 2012. A reading below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor than good. To move inventory, 37% of builders cut prices in July, with the average discount at 6%.
US construction spending on single-family projects dropped 3.3% year-over-year in June. The median US home price peaked near $440,000 in late 2022 and has since drifted to roughly $410,000 — the longest stretch of price weakness since 2008.
Tariffs and wildfires squeeze supply
Combined duties on Canadian lumber now approach 35%, adding roughly $10,000 to the cost of a new American home, according to the NAHB. At the same time, more than 900 wildfires have burned across Western Canada, the source of most US softwood imports. The supply disruption has done little to prop up prices, as demand weakness from the housing slowdown outweighs the tighter supply picture.
Technical breakdown and recession fears
Lumber prices broke down from the $650 resistance after repeated failures in late July and cut through an ascending trendline that had supported prices since December 2025. The daily relative strength index is now in oversold territory at its lowest since September 2025, when a durable rebound followed. Immediate support sits at $580; if that level breaks, the next floor is $565.
Prediction markets have lifted US recession odds this year, adding to the bearish outlook for construction and building materials. The next test for lumber is whether it can hold $580 support — a break below could accelerate losses toward the $565 area.
