A $20 million options trade on SpaceX stock has caught the attention of market watchers, with over 450,000 contracts tied to a $330 strike price that expires August 7. That strike is nearly three times the company's current stock price of about $124, and well above its all-time high of $225.64. The position controls roughly 45 million shares, worth about $14.8 billion at the strike price.
Why the $330 strike?
The sheer size of the trade — more than 450,000 contracts in open interest at that strike, far exceeding any other — suggests it's not a typical retail bet. Options analysts believe the move was likely a hedge by a bank, not a speculative wager by individual investors. Brent Kochuba, an analyst who follows the options market, said the trade could be a hedge against a structured product or short exposure. The contracts have become cheaper as SpaceX stock fell below its IPO price of $135.
Earnings and lockup on deck
SpaceX is set to report its first earnings since its June 12 IPO on Tuesday. The options market implies an expected move of about $20.30, or 16.6%, for the August 7 expiry, with a range of $102.17 to $142.77. That range sits well below the $330 strike. Then on Thursday, the insider lockup period expires, potentially releasing about 911 million shares into the market — more than doubling the current float. The median analyst target for SpaceX is $225, matching the stock's all-time high.
A hedge, not a bet
Kochuba suggested the trade is likely a hedge against a structured product or short exposure, not a directional bet that SpaceX will hit $330 by Friday. The premium paid is estimated at $20 million. With the stock trading around $124, the contracts are deep out of the money. The trade expires on Friday, August 7, one day after the lockup expiration. Whether the bank behind the trade will unwind or adjust the position before then remains an open question.
