Moderna's stock closed at $174.38 on Tuesday, up 176.97% after the company reported that its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, Intismeran, hit both primary endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. The INTerpath-001 study met its goals for recurrence-free survival and distant-metastasis-free survival when used alongside Keytruda.
Two Endpoints Met in Melanoma Trial
The trial results mark a turning point for Moderna, which had seen its shares collapse from roughly $170 in mid-2024 to about $23 by late 2025. The company had been struggling to convince investors that its mRNA platform could work beyond COVID-19. Now, the data suggests Intismeran could become a major commercial product in oncology.
The trial combined Intismeran with Merck's Keytruda, a standard immunotherapy. Meeting both primary endpoints strengthens the case for regulatory submission, though Moderna has not yet announced a filing timeline.
Perplexity AI's Bullish Case
Perplexity AI, the AI-powered research firm, projects Moderna's stock could reach $180 to $240 by the end of 2026, with a bullish base case of $210. That forecast leans on the melanoma data, plus the recent FDA approval of mFLUSIVA, a seasonal flu vaccine that gives Moderna a second commercial product. The company also lowered its 2026 cost guidance, which should ease cash-burn concerns.
But the projection comes with caveats. Perplexity AI notes that disappointing hazard ratios, unclear overall-survival data, pricing pressure, or delays in approval could drag the stock down to $125–$150.
The Risks That Could Undo the Rally
For all the enthusiasm, the stock's technical indicators flash a warning. The relative strength index sits at 92.21, a deeply overbought level. That means the rally may be running ahead of fundamentals in the near term.
Investors will be watching for the release of full hazard ratio data and overall-survival results from the trial, which are likely to come later. Pricing for a personalized cancer vaccine will also be a key question—how much insurers and health systems will pay for a treatment made for each patient.
Approval timing is another unknown. Moderna has not said when it will file for regulatory review, and the FDA's decision process could take months or longer.
From $23 to $174: A Volatile Ride
Moderna's recovery has been steep. After falling to around $23 in late 2025, the stock has more than seven-folded. Technical traders point to support at $150, $120, and $85, while resistance sits at $180, $210, and $240. Tuesday's close at $174.38 puts the stock just below that first resistance level.
The question now is whether the market will wait for more data or push higher on momentum. With the stock in overbought territory and key trial details still pending, the next few weeks could be choppy.
The company's next catalyst will be the release of full trial results, likely at a medical conference or in a peer-reviewed journal. Until then, the stock's direction depends on how traders digest the risk of an overbought rally against the promise of a new cancer treatment.
