A $2.9 trillion wave of data-center spending is expected through 2028, and Morgan Stanley says the investment could redraw the map of global finance while exposing credit markets to new risks tied to AI monetization.
The scale of the spending spree
Analysts at the bank project that total capital expenditure on data centers worldwide will hit $2.9 trillion by the end of the decade. That figure covers building, equipping, and powering the massive server farms that underpin cloud computing and artificial intelligence workloads. The estimate, laid out in a recent research note, positions data-center infrastructure as one of the largest single investment themes in the global economy.
The report argues that the sheer volume of capital flowing into these facilities could shift the trajectory of GDP growth in several major economies. Countries hosting large clusters — the United States, parts of Europe, and Southeast Asia — may see a measurable lift in construction activity, energy demand, and tech-sector employment. But the analysts also warn of spillover effects into credit markets. Banks and institutional lenders that fund these projects face a new layer of risk: the ability of AI companies to turn their expensive hardware into sustainable revenue. If monetization falls short, loans tied to data-center construction could sour.
The AI monetization question
That risk is the crux of the concern. AI models require enormous computing power, and the companies building them have poured billions into data centers. Yet the path to consistent profits remains uncertain. Morgan Stanley's analysts point out that credit exposure to this sector is growing faster than the underlying business models have been tested. Lenders are effectively betting that AI adoption will generate enough demand to keep these facilities filled — and that the operators can charge enough to service their debt.
Who's paying attention
Regulators and central banks have started to take notice, though no formal action has been announced. The report itself is meant to flag the potential for a credit event if the AI boom falters or if energy costs spike. Investors are watching for any signs that data-center operators are struggling to secure long-term contracts with tenants. For now, the money keeps flowing, but the analysts caution that the disconnect between capital deployment and revenue generation is widening.
The next milestone will come when major lenders report their quarterly exposure figures, giving the market a clearer picture of how deeply credit portfolios are tied to this bet.
