Investment bank Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX's annual revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040. The forecast, released this week, covers all current and planned business lines for the private rocket company. That figure would put SpaceX among the largest revenue generators in the global economy.
What the forecast covers
Morgan Stanley's analysts base the $3.4 trillion number on SpaceX's launch services, its growing satellite internet network, and its deep-space transport program. The projection assumes the company will continue to expand across each of those sectors over the next 16 years. Morgan Stanley did not break out how much each business line would contribute, but the total represents a sharp rise from SpaceX's current revenue, which is estimated in the billions.
Why the number stands out
The projection is notable both for its size and its timeline. $3.4 trillion is larger than the annual gross domestic product of most countries. For context, the entire global space economy today is valued at roughly $500 billion according to industry estimates. Morgan Stanley's figure implies SpaceX alone would generate more than six times that amount by 2040. The forecast underscores the bank's view that space is on the cusp of explosive commercial growth.
The road to 2040
To reach that revenue level, SpaceX would need to win a dominant share of launch contracts, build out a satellite internet subscriber base of hundreds of millions, and develop a profitable interplanetary transport system. The company has already demonstrated reusable rockets and is testing its Starship vehicle, though Starship has not yet reached orbit. Morgan Stanley's analysts likely factored in revenue from eventual crewed missions to the moon and Mars, but the bank did not detail those assumptions.
SpaceX remains privately held, so its financials are not public. The company has raised billions from investors at valuations that have climbed past $200 billion in secondary markets. Morgan Stanley has been among the more bullish wall street firms on space stocks and has published similar long-term projections for SpaceX in the past.
What comes next
SpaceX's near-term milestones include the next Starship test flight and continued deployment of its satellite network. Whether those steps push revenue closer to the bank's 2040 target depends on execution and market demand. Morgan Stanley says it will update the forecast as new data emerges on the company's performance and the broader space economy.
