Netflix projected third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion, coming in below the $13 billion analysts had expected. The miss sent shares tumbling nearly 9% in after-hours trading on July 16, 2026.
A revenue forecast that missed expectations
The streaming giant's outlook for the July-to-September period fell short of Wall Street's consensus by about $140 million. The company's stock closed the regular session at $74.35, then dropped to $67.78 in after-hours trading. That decline deepens a tough year for Netflix shareholders — the stock is down more than 21% year-to-date and has lost 41% over the past twelve months. Its all-time high of roughly $133 was set in June 2025.
The stock's steep slide
Netflix's after-hours tumble on the forecast news erased billions in market value. The company has now shed more than two-fifths of its value from that peak about fourteen months ago. PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore described the outlook as 'a naturally maturing growth profile,' a phrase that suggests the company's rapid expansion phase may be slowing.
Streaming metrics and advertising push
Netflix also announced it will cut its quarterly viewing-hours report to a once-a-year cadence starting in January 2027. The company didn't give a reason for the change in reporting frequency. On the advertising front, Netflix reiterated its plan to roughly double annual ad revenue to $3 billion. Engagement — total time spent on the platform — grew 2% in the first half of 2026, a modest increase that may reflect the maturing market Pescatore mentioned.
What comes next
Netflix is scheduled to report its actual third-quarter results on October 20, 2026. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the company can beat its own forecast or if the slowdown Pescatore described is here to stay. The big question: can a $3 billion ad business and a wider content slate pull growth back above what Wall Street is now expecting?
