The probability of US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland shot up to 87% on the prediction market Polymarket, following signals that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady. The surge came after the Fed's latest policy outlook, which a new survey shows most economists expect to hold through 2027.
Survey Sees Fed Holding Steady Through 2027
A poll of 32 economists, fund managers, and strategists predicts the Kevin Warsh-led Fed will not adjust rates for years. According to the survey, 88% of respondents also expect the central bank to remove its easing bias this week — a move that would signal the Fed is done cutting. That near-unanimous view suggests markets have fully priced in a prolonged hold.
What the Betting Markets Saw
Polymarket's odds for US-Iran talks in Switzerland climbed to 87% directly after the Fed's hold outlook became clear. The exact reasoning behind the connection isn't specified, but market participants appear to see a stable rate environment as conducive to diplomatic progress. The jump from prior levels reflects a bet that unchanged monetary policy reduces uncertainty for geopolitical negotiations.
The Fed's Next Move
The survey indicates near-unanimity that the Fed will hold rates steady through 2027. The removal of the easing bias this week would confirm the central bank's shift away from accommodation. That decision is expected within days, and it will likely provide the clearest signal yet for both financial markets and the polymarket bettors watching the Iran talks.
The Fed's formal statement is due later this week, and Polymarket's odds will almost certainly move again when it lands. For now, traders are betting that a steady Fed is a green light for diplomacy.
