RBC has warned that an escalating conflict could push oil prices above the all-time highs set in 2008. The warning comes as prediction markets show a 16.5% chance of a new record by December 31.
The Bank's Warning
In a note to clients, RBC analysts said that if the current conflict continues to intensify, oil prices could break through the 2008 peak. The bank didn't specify a target price but pointed to mounting supply risks and geopolitical instability.
Prediction Market Odds
On the prediction platform, traders are pricing a 16.5% probability that oil will hit a new all-time high before year-end. That's a notable shift from recent weeks, though the market remains highly uncertain.
What's Driving the Fear
The conflict has already disrupted key shipping routes and raised concerns about energy infrastructure. RBC's analysis suggests further escalation could tighten supply even more, pushing prices past the 2008 record.
Oil prices have been climbing steadily, and the 2008 record remains the benchmark for traders watching the crisis. The prediction market odds will likely adjust as new developments emerge. For now, the 16.5% chance reflects a real but still unlikely scenario — one that RBC warns could become more probable if the conflict widens.
