The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin has hit $59 a barrel, nearly triple where it stood at the start of the year. That surge is drawing fresh attention to three mid-cap refiners: Delek US Holdings, HF Sinclair, and Par Pacific. Analyst Justin Jenkins of Raymond James, who boasts an 80% success rate on his calls, has reiterated Buy ratings on all three.
A direct bet on the crack spread
Delek US Holdings is the most refining-focused of the trio, making it a direct play on the crack spread. Jenkins has a $70 price target on the stock, which recently traded near $67 — implying about 4% upside. Goldman Sachs is even more bullish, raising its target to $73. JPMorgan also raised its target to $62 but rates the stock a Hold. Delek shares are up 127% year to date, and the Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a breakout in institutional buying.
The largest and steadiest of the trio
HF Sinclair is the biggest and most diversified of the three, with operations spanning refining, marketing, and renewables. Jenkins set a Street-high $95 target on the stock, which recently sat around $92 — again, about 4% upside. Evercore rates it a Hold, while Barclays and JPMorgan are neutral. The stock is up 99% YTD. But the Chaikin Money Flow shows a bearish divergence: it peaked in May, and money flow hasn't followed the higher prices. Options desks have noted fresh call buying, suggesting some traders still see upside.
Niche markets as a buffer
Par Pacific operates in niche markets — Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies — which insulate its fuel from broader competition. Jenkins raised his target to $85, matching JPMorgan's view. Mizuho has a Buy with an $80 target. The stock is up 129% YTD, and the Chaikin Money Flow made a fresh high, indicating strong institutional buying. But at around $80, the stock is close to the shared $85 ceiling from Jenkins and JPMorgan.
Strategists warn of a pullback
Not everyone is convinced the rally has room to run. Some strategists warn that refiners have run too far, too fast, and that record margins may already be priced into the stocks. Jenkins' targets for Delek and HF Sinclair imply only modest gains from current levels, and Par Pacific is already near the top of analysts' range.
What the targets say
Jenkins' $70 target for Delek gives about 4% upside. His $95 target for HF Sinclair also implies roughly 4% upside. For Par Pacific, the $85 target from Jenkins and JPMorgan is just a few dollars above the recent price near $80. The question now is whether the market has already baked in the margin boom — or if there's still fuel left in the tank.
