Ryan Cohen, the GameStop chairman known for shaking up retail, made an unsolicited $55.5 billion bid this week to absorb eBay. His proposal promises to slash $2 billion in overhead and boost eBay's GAAP EPS from $4.26 to $7.79 in year one. But the market isn't buying it — eBay's stock trades below Cohen's $125 offer price, reflecting deep skepticism from analysts and investors.
Why the market doubts the deal
To finance the acquisition, Cohen plans to take on $20 billion in new debt from TD Securities and dilute GameStop stock. That's a heavy load. Investors see risk in leveraging a company that's still finding its footing post-meme-stock era. The bid arrives as eBay faces its own challenges — 135 million active users, but its Managed Payments take-rate hovers around 13.25%, and traditional card networks charge between 2.5% and 3.5% per transaction. That's a lot of friction.
Steak 'n Shake shows what Lightning can do
Meanwhile, a very different kind of business just proved the Bitcoin Lightning Network works at scale. Steak 'n Shake activated Lightning payments and cut its payment processing costs by 50%. The chain funneled the savings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, using the gains to fund employee bonuses. It's a concrete example — real savings, real deployment.
The eBay opportunity hidden in the numbers
Here's where the two stories connect. eBay's annual gross merchandise volume is $80 billion. A 3% legacy swipe fee on that equals $2.4 billion in friction. Slash that by half via Lightning — same 50% reduction Steak 'n Shake achieved — and you're looking at $1.2 billion in annual savings. Lightning also offers instant settlement, zero chargeback fraud, and no cross-border FX fees. For a platform with 135 million users, the math gets interesting fast.
The Bitcoin treasury play
Cohen's bid doesn't mention Bitcoin, but eBay's balance sheet does hint at a different path. The company holds $2.92 billion in cash reserves, currently earning 12.23% in traditional treasury notes. If that cash were allocated to Bitcoin instead, the treasury would have grown by 1,406%, representing a $5.02 billion unrealized gain. That kind of return is hard to ignore — and it's the same logic Steak 'n Shake used when it built its reserve.
Cohen's proposal now sits with eBay's board. The skepticism is loud, but the efficiency case for Lightning grows stronger by the quarter. Whether eBay moves on its own or resists the bid, the payment-cost question isn't going away.
