Saudi Aramco is negotiating to reroute crude oil shipments around the southern tip of Africa, a move that would add weeks to transit times and push costs higher, as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea intensify. The talks come as Brent crude prices have surged past $98 a barrel, the highest level in months, driven by fears that the Bab el-Mandeb strait could become a no-go zone for tankers.
Why the Red Sea route is suddenly risky
The Houthi group, which controls large parts of Yemen, has stepped up drone and missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Several tankers have reported near-misses, and insurers have hiked premiums for ships transiting the area. For Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, the Bab el-Mandeb is a critical artery: most of its oil bound for Europe and the Americas passes through it. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope would add roughly 10 days to a typical voyage from the Persian Gulf to Rotterdam, increasing fuel and crew costs.
What the reroute would mean for global oil markets
If Aramco follows through, the extra sailing time would effectively remove millions of barrels from the market during the journey, tightening supply just as demand remains strong. Analysts tracking the talks say the company is weighing the cost of longer voyages against the risk of losing a tanker or facing a prolonged closure of the Bab el-Mandeb. Brent crude’s rise above $98 reflects that calculation. The reroute would also push up freight rates for other shippers, as available tanker capacity shrinks.
No official confirmation yet
Aramco has not publicly confirmed the negotiations. The company declined to comment when reached by GFdaily. But the discussions are known to involve multiple parties, including charterers and logistics firms, as they map out alternative routes. The Houthi attacks show no sign of abating; the group has said it will continue targeting vessels linked to Israel or its allies until the war in Gaza ends. That leaves Aramco and other shippers with a difficult choice: pay the premium for Red Sea passage or take the long way around Africa.
What happens next
The talks are expected to conclude within weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. If a decision to reroute is made, the first diverted cargoes could begin sailing as early as next month. In the meantime, oil traders are watching the Bab el-Mandeb closely — any further escalation could send Brent above $100.
