Silver prices pushed roughly 3% higher in today's session to around $79, breaking above a multi-month resistance shelf at $78 that corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. The move comes after the metal surged 167% from an October 2025 low of $45 to an all-time high of $121 in late January, then traded inside a falling channel pattern for months.
Why Silver Broke Through $78
The break above $78 is the first significant upward move since the peak. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been falling since early April, and silver and the dollar move inversely. On May 6, crude oil prices dropped 7-8% due to optimism around a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, further reducing safe-haven demand for the dollar and supporting silver.
What the COT Data Shows
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, dated April 28, shows total open interest dropped by 14,187 to 101,275. Both long and short positions were reduced, but shorts came off 23% faster than longs. Net speculative positioning remains structurally long at a 4.4-to-1 long-to-short ratio (31,314 vs 7,154). Commercial hedgers remain heavily short at 69.2% of open interest, which is normal for hedging physical inventory. The reduction in shorts suggests traders are less bearish, but the overall lower open interest indicates caution.
The Next Hurdles
Silver's next resistance levels are $90 (0.382 Fib), $99 (0.5 Fib), $108 (0.618), $120 (0.786), and the all-time high at $121. The $99 level is critical: silver attempted multiple rallies after the late-January peak but failed to cross $99 on each attempt. Reaching the $121 all-time high from the current price would represent a 53% climb, but that depends on COT positioning and DXY movements through May.
Failure to hold $78 could lead to a slide toward $64 and $60, the lower band of the falling channel. For now, the dollar's continued weakness and the oil-driven safe-haven shift are giving silver room to run. Whether the rally can sustain through the $99 barrier will be the next big test.
