What a default would cost
The Conference Board modeled a one-week default scenario, and the numbers are stark. Small business loan payments would jump 21.6%, student loan costs 8.7%, and housing costs up to 6.7%. A retiree collecting $2,100 a month could lose about $170. In the board's higher-deficit path, a modeled family would see their five-year mortgage bill rise by $55,000, or more than $900 a month. The baseline forecast isn't much brighter: US debt is projected to hit 154% of GDP by 2036, and Social Security's main trust fund would run dry in 2032.
Crypto's footprint on household budgets
New research from the JPMorgan Chase Institute shows the median crypto buyer moved about $620 into crypto between 2015 and mid-2022. That sum now buys less than 0.01 bitcoin. Meanwhile, an Office of Financial Research brief found that in high crypto-use areas, the share of low-income households holding mortgages nearly quadrupled from 4.1% to 15.4% between 2020 and 2024. JPMorgan data also shows lower-income millennials paid about $45,400 per bitcoin on average versus $42,400 for top earners. The gap suggests that crypto adoption is not just a rich person's game, and that the risks are spread across income levels.
Bond markets are paying attention
The 30-year Treasury yield is near levels last seen in 2003, a sign that investors are demanding more compensation for fiscal risk and heavy bond supply. The US ran a $432.3 billion deficit in July, the widest monthly gap since March 2021. Interest costs are on track to hit $1.37 trillion this fiscal year. Firms have sold nearly $1.7 trillion in bonds this year, up 27% from the same period in 2025. Bitcoin carry trade returns have recently beaten two-year Treasury
