SpaceX will report its second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market closes on Aug. 4, with a management webcast scheduled for 3:30 p.m. CT (4:30 p.m. ET). The report marks the first earnings release tied to a staggered lock-up expiration, allowing some insiders to sell shares two full trading days later, on Aug. 6. The stock has slid into late July, trading near $107 on July 28, with over $1.2 trillion in market value erased from its mid-June high.
The Lock-Up Release Details
Under the lock-up terms, 20% of the eligible insider pool can be sold starting Aug. 6. That first tranche could unlock up to approximately 911.5 million shares. The release is tied directly to the earnings report, meaning the company's financial results and forward guidance will set the stage for how much selling pressure materializes.
Key Metrics to Watch
Investors will be parsing several numbers in the earnings release. Revenue and margins are the headline figures, but operating expenses and cash flows will also get close attention. Beyond the financials, SpaceX's launch cadence, Starlink subscriber growth, and Starship development milestones are likely to feature in the webcast discussion. These operational metrics have become central to the company's valuation narrative.
Three Scenarios for the Stock
The article outlines three possible outcomes. A beat with upbeat guidance could reassure the market and potentially offset some lock-up selling. An inline report with a cautious tone might leave the stock vulnerable, as the upcoming supply of shares could weigh on sentiment. A miss with negative revisions would likely amplify selling pressure, especially with the lock-up release just two days away.
What's at Stake
The lock-up release could shape trading in the days after the earnings. Guidance is especially sensitive given the upcoming supply of shares. If the company delivers strong numbers and a confident outlook, the market may absorb the unlocked shares more easily. But a weak report could compound the sell-off that has already erased more than a trillion dollars in market value from the June peak.
The market will get its first look at SpaceX's financials after the bell on Aug. 4. The webcast and subsequent trading days will reveal whether the company can reassure investors ahead of the lock-up release.
