SpaceX pulled off the biggest IPO on record, raising about $75 billion by selling 555.6 million new Class A shares. The company will plow every dollar into its artificial intelligence buildout. No existing holders cashed out at listing, leaving insiders with roughly 95.8% of the equity — and most of those shares won't trade freely for months.
A Lock-Up Schedule Designed to Hold the Line
Elon Musk and certain investors agreed to a 366-day lock-up. Lower-tier staff equity is frozen until the first release window after Q2 earnings, which could land between mid-July and September. Up to 20% of eligible insider shares will then unlock. Another 10% can be released if the stock holds at least 30% above the offer price for five of ten sessions. After that, five 7% tranches unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days. Another 28% becomes free after Q3 earnings, with full release at 180 days.
There's also a directed share program covering up to 5% of IPO shares for individuals selected by executives. Those participants can only sell after the first earnings report.
Retail Investors Left With a Smaller Slice
Retail investors submitted over $100 billion in orders for the deal — more than the entire $75 billion offering. Total demand reached 3.5 to 4 times the available stock. But strong institutional appetite forced SpaceX to cut the retail allocation to the low 20% range from a planned 30%. BlackRock ordered at least $5 billion; sovereign funds took allocations of more than $1 billion each. On the broker side, share fills were either random or pro rata, and brokers only debited cash for shares actually received.
The Valuation Question Hangs Over the Stock
Spacex comes to market at roughly 94 times trailing sales. For context, Tesla trades at about 15 times sales; NVIDIA sits at 21 times. The company reported 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion and a net loss of $4.9 billion. Starlink generated $4.4 billion in operating profit, but that was more than wiped out by a $6.4 billion loss from xAI. Google/Alphabet, which holds about 5% of SpaceX after the xAI merger dilution, could see its position worth up to $100 billion — a bet on the same AI story that the IPO is funding.
Index Funds Are Set to Buy Soon
Nasdaq's fast-entry rule and MSCI's early inclusion will push index funds to buy SpaceX stock within weeks of listing. That creates a standing demand that could support the price even as retail and institutional traders sort out their positions. But the extreme valuation relative to earnings and the tight float mean volatility is almost certain.
The next big date is the first earnings report, expected around mid-July. That's when the first chunk of insider shares becomes eligible to trade — and when investors will get their first look at whether the AI buildout is paying off.
