SpaceX is aiming for a $1.77 trillion valuation in its upcoming IPO, pricing shares at $135. That figure puts the company at 94 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion — a multiple that Morningstar estimates is nearly double SpaceX's fair value. The company's pitch to investors hinges on what it calls 'the largest actionable TAM in human history': a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with $26.5 trillion coming from AI, including $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.
A $28.5 Trillion Bet on AI
The AI push comes with steep costs. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 after merging with xAI, followed by a $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026. Accumulated deficits have reached $41.3 billion, and the AI division alone lost $6.36 billion from operations last year. Those losses are being covered by SpaceX's profitable businesses: launch services and Starlink broadband.
The company has locked in massive compute deals. Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for computing power, and Google signed a $920 million per month deal for 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs through June 2029. Both contracts can be canceled with 90 days' notice.
Starlink Growth Slows Revenue Per User
Starlink subscriber numbers have more than doubled to 10.3 million by March 2026. But average revenue per user has dropped sharply — from $99 a month in 2023 to $66 a month. That trend suggests SpaceX is adding lower-paying customers, possibly through cheaper plans or regional pricing, to boost the base while overall revenue per customer falls.
Still, Starlink's growing subscriber count generates cash that helps fund the AI side of the business. The question is how long those cross-subsidies can continue if ARPU keeps slipping.
Musk's Control and Retail Access
Elon Musk holds 42% of SpaceX's equity but controls 85.1% of voting power. After listing, SpaceX plans to claim controlled-company status, which gives it exemptions from some corporate governance rules. Up to 30% of the IPO shares are reserved for retail investors — about triple the typical allocation for a mega-IPO.
The IPO will test whether public markets are willing to stomach a valuation built largely on future AI revenue while current losses deepen. Morningstar's estimate that the company is nearly twice its fair value suggests some analysts see downside. SpaceX's next filing will include updated financials and the controlled-company disclosure. Investors will have to weigh the promise of a $28.5 trillion market against $41.3 billion in accumulated red ink.
