SpaceX shares climbed 12% to $149.29 on Wednesday, extending a five-session rally that has added more than $500 billion in market value. The trigger: SpaceXAI, the company's AI arm, launched Grok 4.6, a model the company says is a significant improvement over its predecessor at the same price.
A price win, not a power win
Analyst Miles Deutscher described Grok 4.6 as a price win, not a power win, noting it offers discounts compared to rival models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. On the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, Grok 4.6 scored 61, behind Claude Opus 5's 63 and Claude Fable 5's 62. The model's appeal, for now, is cost, not raw capability.
The AI unit's heavy cost
SpaceXAI lost $1.26 billion last quarter, but it also booked $2.56 billion in revenue, up 247% from a year earlier. That growth comes at a price: the AI unit took $15.83 billion of the group's $18.4 billion in capital spending, or 86% of the budget for 33% of sales. Connectivity, the Starlink business, covered the AI loss with $1.66 billion in operating profit.
Wall Street's split on the AI value
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas says most investors ascribe zero or negative value to the AI arm, but he disagrees. More than half of his $300 price target rests on AI. Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SpaceX to Buy on August 7, citing the 247% revenue growth and a sub-one-year payback on AI hardware. The stock closed up 15.8% that day, adding $240 billion in market value.
The stock still trades below its $150 debut and 35% under its record near $226. A 911.5 million share lockup overhang lifted on August 6, and shares rose 6%. The rally has been volatile: on August 5, the stock fell 13.6% after a word on the company's debut quarterly earnings call spooked chip investors. Elon Musk says Grok 4.7 will be ready in three to four weeks, with training complete and SpaceX company data being added. He claims it will exceed all current models, citing the unique SpaceX training corpus. That release will be the next test for a stock that has already priced in a lot.
