SpaceX (SPCX) shares have tumbled roughly 29% over the past month, closing Tuesday at $116.41 — below the company's initial public offering price of $135. The stock hit an intraday low of $107.01 before recovering, but remains about 48% below its June 16 high of $225.64.
Lockup Expiration Looms Over SPCX
Investors are bracing for August 6, when approximately 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale as the post-IPO lockup period expires. That's a massive supply of stock hitting the market at a time when sentiment is already sour. Jim Cramer, the CNBC host, advises against buying SPCX yet. He expects the lockup expiration to drag the price lower as early investors and employees cash out.
The lockup release is a standard feature of IPOs, but the sheer volume of shares — more than double the current float — could overwhelm demand. Cramer's warning echoes a common concern: even if the company's fundamentals are solid, a flood of supply can depress the stock for weeks.
Earnings Report Adds Uncertainty
SpaceX is scheduled to report earnings on August 4, just two days before the lockup expires. That timing means traders will have to digest both a quarterly update and the prospect of a share overhang in quick succession.
Cramer noted that SpaceX's AI business has been boosted by multibillion-dollar computing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet. But those contracts come with a catch: they can be terminated with 90 days' notice. That makes revenue modeling difficult and raises questions about the sustainability of that growth. Cramer also questioned expectations for similar AI deals, pointing out that few companies have the deep pockets to match Anthropic or Alphabet.
He said both the earnings report and the lockup expiration could drive further weakness. For now, the stock is trading well below its IPO price, and the next few days will show whether buyers step in or sellers take control.
