SpaceX shares tumbled to an all-time low of $104.83 on Monday before recovering to close at $114.53, up 6% from Friday. The stock, trading under ticker SPCX, is now 15% below its $135 IPO price and roughly half its record high of $225.64. Elon Musk, the company's CEO, weighed in on X, calling the stock a buying opportunity — when asked directly, he replied, 'I think so.'
The Lock-Up Expiration
A major catalyst looms on August 6, when a lock-up agreement expires, freeing up to 911.5 million shares for sale. At Monday's close, that block is worth about $104 billion. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares will unlock only if the stock tops $175.50 — a level it hasn't touched since the IPO. Musk's own shares remain locked until June 2027; he controls roughly 82% of voting power.
For context, Facebook's 2012 lock-up expiration freed 773 million shares. That day, the stock actually rose 12.6% because holders refused to sell and short sellers were forced to cover. Whether SpaceX sees a similar dynamic is unclear.
Short Sellers Circle
Short interest has jumped sharply. As of late July, 165 million shares were sold short, up from 111.3 million two weeks earlier. That represents about 25% of the roughly 639 million shares that are currently tradable — less than 5% of the total 13.2 billion shares outstanding. The high short interest could set up a squeeze if the stock rallies after the lock-up expires.
Analyst Views vs. Reality
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a $300 price target on SpaceX, and most analysts see the stock above $220. Jim Cramer advised waiting until the lock-up passes before buying. Cathie Wood said SpaceX could become the most important company in history. But the numbers tell a different story: SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is nearly $39 for every $1 of expected sales this year. Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers in March, and investors are waiting for fresh earnings data to see if revenue is catching up to the valuation.
What Comes Next
The lock-up expiration on August 6 will test whether the selling pressure is real or just noise. If the stock fails to hold above $104.83, it could set a new floor. If it jumps, short sellers may scramble. Either way, the next few days will show whether Musk's confidence is shared by the market.
