SpaceX stock (SPCX) is trading near $137 in premarket action, barely above its $135 IPO price and Tuesday's record low of $135.52. The shares have shed nearly 40% since hitting a peak of $225.64 on June 16.
Why the stock is sliding
Two critical support zones have been lost in recent weeks. The $168–$171 range gave way in mid-June, followed by the $149–$153 level in early July. With no clear floor below $135, traders are watching for a potential breakdown. The first lock-up tranche — 20% of shares — is set to release around the company's second-quarter earnings in late July, adding further supply pressure. A second, bonus tranche of 10% requires SPCX to close above $175.50, a condition that looks nearly impossible given the current slide.
Starship Flight 13 as a catalyst
Thursday's Starship Flight 13 could shift the narrative. The mission will carry 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, adding 60 Tbps of capacity. A successful launch might trigger a breakout from the falling wedge pattern visible on the hourly chart, which suggests a potential rebound to $157.89 — about 15% above current levels. The hourly RSI is showing a bullish divergence, the first since the correction began. But a failure risks a close below the $135 IPO price, with no chart support to catch the fall.
Lock-up and debt overhang
Beyond the lock-up tranches, SpaceX issued a $25 billion inaugural bond in June with coupons ranging from 5.35% to 6.65%. That debt load adds to the pressure on the stock, especially if earnings disappoint. The lock-up release timeline means more shares could hit the market just as the company reports results, creating a potential double whammy.
Analyst outlook and tokenized market
Evercore ISI initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target. The broker consensus sits at $225. Meanwhile, tokenized SpaceX products on Solana have attracted over 10,000 holders, contributing to $5.77 billion in tokenized stock volume in the second quarter. That retail interest hasn't been enough to prop up the share price so far.
All eyes are now on Thursday's launch. A successful flight could give SPCX the momentum it needs to break the falling wedge and reclaim lost ground. A failure would leave the stock with no support below $135.
