SpaceX shares surged more than 11% to near $128 on Friday, the first trading day after the company's initial insider lockup period expired. The unlock made 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, lifting the tradable float from 4.9% to 11.8% of shares outstanding — a block worth roughly $100 billion.
Why the unlock didn't sink the stock
Investors had braced for dilution for months. SPCX slid from its June record of $225.61 to lows near $105 before the expiration, partly on that anticipation. But the actual event triggered a rally instead of a sell-off. The company's first earnings report, released alongside the unlock, showed revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year and ahead of expectations.
Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SPCX from Hold to Buy with a $160 target, citing early payback on AI infrastructure spending. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas called the expiration a buying opportunity and described SpaceX as a potential generational compounder. Bank of America's Ron Epstein struck a more cautious tone, warning that added supply would likely weigh on shares near term.
Options and short interest tell two stories
Options positioning shows heavy bullish tilt. Open call contracts stood at 1,031,939 against 454,896 puts, a put-call ratio of 0.44. One notable block: 563,419 call contracts at the $330 strike, tied to a $20 million trade. Short interest, however, remains elevated at 219.3 million shares — about 34% of the float as of July 29, worth $24.6 billion. That combination suggests traders are betting both on further upside and on a pullback.
Technical levels and the next tranches
Immediate resistance sits at $137.69, then $151 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), then $165.23, with the all-time high at $225.61. Support is at $126.88. The relative strength index was 68.37, just below overbought territory.
SpaceX staggered its lockup restrictions across nine tranches. The first was tied to the debut earnings report; additional tranches expire through December 8. By then, up to 40% of the company could be tradable. Elon Musk's own stake remains restricted until mid-2027.
The next unlock date will test whether Friday's bounce holds. With more shares hitting the market over the coming months, the question isn't whether supply will arrive — it's whether demand keeps pace.
