SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed just above $115 on Thursday, nearly 20% below its IPO price and roughly 50% below its June peak. The company's 2056 bonds sank to a record low below 89, pushing the yield to worst to 7.6%. Peter Schiff warned the selloff could be a harbinger for other overhyped stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The bond market's signal
Credit spreads on SpaceX's 2056 notes have widened from about 175 basis points at issuance to over 230 basis points. That's a big move for a company that was supposed to be a blue-chip space play. Schiff, a longtime gold bug and crypto skeptic, said the deterioration in SpaceX's debt could foreshadow a broader repricing in risk assets — including digital assets. Critics note Schiff has a history of bearish calls that haven't always panned out, but the bond data is hard to ignore.
A tough quarter and a delayed rocket
SpaceX reported a Q1 net loss of $4.28 billion on $4.69 billion in revenue. That's a brutal margin. The company joined the Nasdaq 100 shortly after its IPO, but the stock has since dropped roughly 29% from that milestone. A delayed Starship test flight this month added to the negative sentiment. The timing isn't great: investors are already jittery about the broader market, and SpaceX's operational hiccups are compounding the pain.
The August share unlock
The next big test comes in early August, when about 911.5 million shares — worth roughly $104 billion at current prices — become eligible for sale. That's the first major share unlock since the IPO. On top of that, there are dilution concerns tied to SpaceX's reported acquisition of Cursor AI. If insiders and early investors start selling, the stock could face even more pressure.
What traders are watching
Some traders see a falling wedge pattern on the chart that could support a rebound near current levels. But the bond market is sending a different message. The article suggests traders will watch SPCX bond yields as an early signal before any broader repricing hits digital assets. The unlock is set for early August. Until then, bond yields may offer the clearest read on whether the selloff has further to go.
