SpaceX stock closed near $115 on Wednesday, roughly 15% below its $135 IPO price from June 12. The decline has erased about $1.5 trillion in market value since the stock hit an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, and investors who bought in at the offering are sitting on a nearly 20% loss. The slide comes just days before the company reports its first quarterly earnings on August 4, and a lock-up expiration on August 6 that could flood the market with up to 911.5 million shares.
Three forces behind the sell-off
Analysts point to a trio of headwinds. Starship development has hit delays, pushing back the timeline for the next test flight. Meanwhile, Blue Origin raised a new round of funding, signaling a deeper-pocketed competitor in the launch market. And on July 10, China successfully landed a Long March 10B booster on a sea platform, becoming only the second country to recover an orbital-class rocket — a milestone that undercuts SpaceX's long-held monopoly on reusable boosters.
The stock fell 6.7% on July 22 alone, to $115.26. That day marked a 49% drop from the June 16 peak. Peter Schiff, the economist and gold bug, said the rout could signal a broader market crash.
Lock-up expiration and the Meta precedent
SpaceX's lock-up agreement releases 911.5 million shares on August 6, the first trading day after earnings. That's roughly 69% of the shares sold in the IPO. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares was supposed to unlock only if the stock traded at $175.50 or higher for five of the ten trading days ending on the earnings date. That condition has not been met, so those shares will stay locked.
Elon Musk's own shares are locked for 366 days, until June 2027. He controls 82.4% of voting power through a dual-class structure, despite owning less than half the equity.
The situation echoes Meta's 2012 IPO. Meta priced at $38, raised $16 billion, and saw its first lock-up expiration on August 16, 2012, when 271 million shares became free to trade. The stock dropped 6.3% that day. A second, larger unlock on November 14 — 1.19 billion shares — actually produced a 12.6% gain. Meta's stock bottomed at $17.73 on September 4, 2012, 53.3% below its IPO price, before recovering on strong mobile ad sales in July 2013.
SpaceX's lock-up is proportionally larger than Meta's first unlock, and the stock is already trading below its IPO price. Retail investors, who received just over 20% of the IPO allocation, may be especially exposed.
What to watch on earnings day
SpaceX will report its first earnings as a public company on August 4, after the close. The results will give investors their first look at the company's financials — including how much revenue Starship delays are costing and whether the Starlink business is generating enough cash to offset the pressure.
The lock-up expiration on August 6 will test whether the selling pressure has already been priced in, or if a wave of insider sales pushes the stock lower. If the stock fails to recover, the second tranche of shares will remain locked indefinitely, removing one source of potential supply. But with 911.5 million shares about to hit the market, the next few trading days will determine whether SpaceX can stabilize above its IPO price — or follow Meta's path to a deeper trough before a recovery.
