SpaceX shares tumbled 18% from their post-IPO peak this week, closing at $184.98 on Thursday after the company announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of AI coding tool Cursor. The two-day selloff erased roughly $620 billion in market value, pulling the company's valuation from nearly $3 trillion to $2.37 trillion.
Why the stock dropped
The dive began after SpaceX disclosed on June 16 it would buy Anysphere entirely with stock. The deal adds roughly 3.4% dilution to SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO valuation — investors effectively own a smaller piece of the company after the transaction. The stock briefly ranked fourth globally by market value ahead of Amazon and Microsoft, then slid to seventh place by Thursday's close.
Morningstar trimmed its fair value estimate for SPCX to $62 from $63, noting the deal adds share dilution and the stock was already significantly overvalued. Even in the firm's best-case scenario, fair value sits at $169 — well below the current trading price.
One analyst sees upside
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target to $250 following the Cursor deal. He argues the acquisition gives SpaceX access to AI talent, training data, and an established developer user base. That's a far more optimistic view than Morningstar's, and the gap between analyst estimates reflects uncertainty about how much Anysphere will actually contribute to SpaceX's bottom line.
Retail investors pile in, then pull back
Retail traders were early buyers in a big way. They poured $369.8 million into SPCX over its first three trading sessions — more than four times the amount flowing into Nvidia over the same period. But by Thursday, net retail buying had cooled to just $9.1 million. Investors who got IPO allocations at $135 through platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi still hold paper gains. Those who bought shares on the open market are sitting on losses.
What's coming next
A lockup expiry in late July could double the tradeable float, potentially adding more selling pressure. On top of that, a possible $20 billion bond sale tied to xAI financing may increase supply-side pressure on SPCX. SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company is due in the same window, giving investors their first real look at the financials behind the stock. Whether the Cursor deal proves worth the dilution — or whether the selloff deepens — will start to become clearer then.
