SpaceX’s stock market debut last week was the biggest in history, and it didn’t take long for the company to make another splash. Four days after pricing its IPO at $135 a share and raising about $75 billion, SpaceX signed a $60 billion all-stock deal to buy Cursor, the startup behind the AI code editor Anysphere.
The back-to-back milestones sent the company’s market cap above $2.7 trillion briefly, overtaking Amazon before settling near $2.66 trillion. Shares, which opened trading near $167, climbed to a high of $208 and have since cooled to around $202.
The $60 Billion All-Stock Deal
The Cursor acquisition came together fast. SpaceX used its freshly minted stock as currency, offering Cursor’s shareholders a stake in the combined company. Terms weren’t disclosed beyond the headline number, but the move signals SpaceX’s ambition to fold AI-powered development tools into its sprawling aerospace and satellite business.
Cursor, formerly known as Anysphere, had been valued at around $10 billion in its last private round. The $60 billion price tag represents a hefty premium — and a bet that AI coding assistants will be central to SpaceX’s future engineering pipeline.
Derivatives Market Shows Heavy Short Interest
While the stock has rallied, the derivatives market tells a more cautious story. On Hyperliquid, a crypto perpetuals exchange, SpaceX’s open interest stands at $304 million. Smart-money traders are net short by $45.3 million, with 91% of their positions bearish. Nansen data pegs the combined net short from smart money and whales at $20.8 million and $23.7 million, respectively.
That’s a lot of bets against a stock that just hit an all-time high. But Chaikin Money Flow is positive at +0.14, suggesting institutions are still accumulating shares. The price also remains above VWAP, a technical level traders watch for momentum.
Correlation data adds another layer. SpaceX’s stock has only a 0.12 correlation with Tesla, and a negative 0.15 correlation with traditional space-sector peers. That means it’s marching to its own rhythm — for now.
Options Market and Analyst Forecast
The options market is tilted bullish. The put-to-call volume ratio is 0.84, meaning more calls are trading than puts. Implied volatility is sky-high at 170%, a sign that traders expect big swings. With options expiry just two days away, any sharp move could trigger outsized gains or losses.
Analyst Ted Pillows isn’t mincing words. He expects a 60-70% pump followed by a 50% crash — essentially a parabolic spike then a brutal correction. If he’s right, current holders could see a wild ride in the weeks ahead.
Key Levels and Upcoming Catalysts
Technically, the stock has a Fibonacci support level at $201. A break below that could send it to $193, then $179. On the upside, resistance sits near the $208 high. The Hype Score, which measures social and media buzz, has slipped to 69 after the initial euphoria — still elevated but fading.
Two events loom large. Options expire in two days, which could force a sharp move as positions are closed. Then in August, the lock-up period ends, releasing fresh shares onto the market. That’s when early investors and employees can sell, potentially adding downward pressure.
For now, SpaceX is riding high on the biggest IPO ever and a blockbuster acquisition. The question isn’t whether it can hold $2.6 trillion — it’s what happens when the lock-up opens.
