SpaceX is aiming for a $1.77 trillion valuation in its upcoming initial public offering, a figure that would make it one of the most valuable companies to ever hit the public markets. The aerospace manufacturer, led by Elon Musk, hasn't set a firm date yet, but the target has already drawn attention from institutional investors and tech traders alike. The IPO could reshape how investors think about space-related stocks and liquidity in the sector.
The $1.77 Trillion Target
That valuation would put SpaceX well above most publicly traded tech giants. For context, only a handful of companies—think Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco—have ever crossed the trillion-dollar mark. SpaceX's ambition reflects its dominant position in launch services, Starlink satellite internet, and future projects like Starship. But the number also raises questions: how much of that valuation is based on current revenue versus future promises?
Morgan Stanley's Long-Term Bet
Morgan Stanley, one of the banks advising on the IPO, projects SpaceX's revenue could hit $3.4 trillion by 2040. That's a staggering figure, roughly equivalent to the entire gross domestic product of Germany today. The projection leans heavily on Starlink's potential to capture a chunk of global telecom and internet markets, plus the long-shot assumption that space tourism and point-to-point Earth transport become mainstream. Even optimistic analysts admit those numbers require near-perfect execution over nearly two decades.
What the IPO Means for Tech Stocks
The offering is expected to draw massive demand from retail and institutional investors, potentially siphoning liquidity from other high-growth tech names. Some fund managers worry that a $1.77 trillion IPO could distort indices and push money out of legacy stocks like Tesla or Amazon. On the other hand, a successful listing could open the door for other space startups—Relativity Space, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab—to go public with higher valuations than they'd get today.
The Speculative Nature of Projections
None of these projections are guaranteed. SpaceX's own financial disclosures, expected in the IPO prospectus, will show how much of that $3.4 trillion rests on unproven markets. Starlink still faces competition from terrestrial fiber and 5G, and Starship's reusability timeline keeps slipping. The $1.77 trillion valuation itself is a target, not a done deal; underwriters will set the final price based on investor feedback. If demand falls short, the number could drop.
The SEC hasn't received a formal filing yet. Once it does, the clock starts on a 90- to 120-day review period. Until then, all figures remain aspirational—and the market waits.
