SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly results as a public company after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast scheduled around 4:30 p.m. ET. Wall Street expects revenue between $6.8 billion and $6.9 billion, a sharp jump from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter. Analysts also forecast a non-GAAP loss per share of roughly $0.23 to $0.26.
The numbers to watch
The headline revenue figure will draw immediate attention, but the real story lies beneath. Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet division, is projected to generate around $3.8 billion in revenue with operating margins near 36%. That would mark a significant contribution from a business that didn't exist a few years ago.
The AI unit — encompassing xAI, Grok, and data-center capacity — is forecast to bring in $2 billion to $2.3 billion, making it the fastest-growing segment. Meanwhile, the traditional space segment (Falcon, Dragon, Starship) continues to consume capital without delivering near-term returns.
Starlink's growing role
Starlink has become a cash engine for the company. With margins approaching 36%, it's now the most profitable piece of the business. The division's revenue alone would make it a sizable standalone company. Investors will be watching for any updates on subscriber growth, average revenue per user, and plans for the next-generation satellite constellation.
The AI bet
The AI unit's rapid growth — from essentially zero to a projected $2 billion-plus in revenue — reflects SpaceX's aggressive push into artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company is selling data-center capacity and developing its own AI models through xAI and Grok. Analysts at Bernstein say the quarterly results themselves should not matter; the focus is on management's confidence in the AI strategy and the orbital data center concept.
The lockup overhang
A major lockup tranche opens on August 6, potentially releasing hundreds of millions of shares into the market. Some traders are already shorting SpaceX ahead of the unlock, and the stock has fallen roughly 50% from its all-time high. Shares closed Monday at $114.53, up 5.68%, after trading in the mid-100s amid post-IPO volatility.
The company completed history's largest public offering in June at a roughly $1.5 trillion valuation. Since then, the stock has been under pressure, partly due to the looming unlock and partly due to broader market concerns about capital-intensive space ventures.
What analysts are saying
Bernstein analysts argue that the quarterly print is less important than the narrative. They point to three scenarios: a clean beat with strong disclosure, in-line results with vague guidance, or a soft print with capex concerns. One analyst noted that SPCX trades at 10 times 2028 sales, suggesting the market is already pricing in years of future growth.
The key question Tuesday evening is whether management can convince investors that the AI and Starlink growth stories are real — and that the capital spending on Starship and other space projects will eventually pay off. The market will get its first look at the numbers after the close.
